The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals¶
Morey, R. D., Hoekstra, R., Rouder, J. N., Lee, M. D., & Wagenmakers, E. (2016). The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 23(1), 103-123.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Confidence Intervals
- … probability model adequate, or is coverage degraded by assumption violations?* The frame clarifies what the CI provides — calibrated long-run coverage of the procedure, communicating both point estimate and uncertainty bands — and what it does NOT — a direct probability that the specific observed interval contains θ
This sourceArgues that a confidence interval does not warrant the belief that the specific observed interval contains the parameter with the stated probability. DOI live-confirmed to resolve this session.
Supported in partVerified against the publisher's abstract
The deposited abstract defines CIs as containing the true parameter in a known proportion of repeated samples and cautions against using CI theory to justify interval estimates, backing the 'does NOT' half in direction only.
“For this reason, we caution against relying upon confidence interval theory to justify interval estimates, and suggest that other theories of interval estimation should be used instead.”
- … probability model adequate, or is coverage degraded by assumption violations?* The frame clarifies what the CI provides — calibrated long-run coverage of the procedure, communicating both point estimate and uncertainty bands — and what it does NOT — a direct probability that the specific observed interval contains θ
- Effect Size
- Listed in the references but not attached to a specific claim.
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Read against the text for 1 of 2 citations: 1 supported in part. Each verdict is shown under its citation below, with what in the work backs the sentence.
Support is checked per citation rather than per work — the same source can be cited soundly in one article and wrongly in another. Per-citation recording began recently, so a citation with no recorded check is a gap in the record rather than evidence it went unchecked.
See how references were verified.
Registry ID ref:a97bc5a49a1f · see in the full table