Interrupted Time Series Regression for the Evaluation of Public Health Interventions¶
Lopez Bernal, J., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted Time Series Regression for the Evaluation of Public Health Interventions: A Tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
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Mechanisms¶
- Interrupted Series with Pretrend Check
- … strength is that it exploits the temporal structure a naïve two-point before-after throws away, so it can separate a genuine step-change from a spike that was always going to decay — the antidote to the archetype's timeless-mean fallacy, which asserts reversion toward a fixed average while ignoring trend and season.
This sourceShows how segmented interrupted-time-series analysis uses repeated observations to estimate pre-trends, level changes, and slope changes while accounting for seasonality and related temporal structure.
- … strength is that it exploits the temporal structure a naïve two-point before-after throws away, so it can separate a genuine step-change from a spike that was always going to decay — the antidote to the archetype's timeless-mean fallacy, which asserts reversion toward a fixed average while ignoring trend and season.
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