Forecasting Output and Inflation¶
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2003). Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices. Journal of Economic Literature, 788-829.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Proxy-Target Divergence
- In macroeconomic policy, leading indicators that historically tracked recession risk decouple during regime changes.
This sourceDocuments that asset-price leading indicators are individually unstable predictors of output growth — 'being a good predictor historically is largely unrelated to subsequent performance' — i.e., indicators decouple from recession risk across regimes.
- In macroeconomic policy, leading indicators that historically tracked recession risk decouple during regime changes.
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