Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492)¶
Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492).
Cited by¶
4 citations across 4 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Counterfactual Proximity Weighting
- The pattern reduces a confused mix of "irrational" behaviours to a single mechanism — the system is responding to a counterfactual-proximity signal the outcome record does not contain — and compresses the intervention space into three families keyed to the direction of the desired change. To dampen the response, suppress the salience of the counterfactual neighbour: regulators removing near-miss displays from gaming machines, debriefings that focus on the actual outcome rather than the avoided one, techniques for interrupting regret rumination. To amplify the response, surface the counterfactual neighbour: safety programmes that publicise close-call statistics, leadership debriefs that walk through "what could have happened." To weight it correctly, ground the proximity weight in an explicit causal model rather than perceptual proximity: fault-tree analysis weights near-misses by failure-mode branching, not by emotional vividness.
This sourceStandard reference for fault-tree analysis, which weights failure events by causal-chain branching and failure-mode probability rather than perceptual salience.
- The pattern reduces a confused mix of "irrational" behaviours to a single mechanism — the system is responding to a counterfactual-proximity signal the outcome record does not contain — and compresses the intervention space into three families keyed to the direction of the desired change. To dampen the response, suppress the salience of the counterfactual neighbour: regulators removing near-miss displays from gaming machines, debriefings that focus on the actual outcome rather than the avoided one, techniques for interrupting regret rumination. To amplify the response, surface the counterfactual neighbour: safety programmes that publicise close-call statistics, leadership debriefs that walk through "what could have happened." To weight it correctly, ground the proximity weight in an explicit causal model rather than perceptual proximity: fault-tree analysis weights near-misses by failure-mode branching, not by emotional vividness.
- Latent Realizable Capacity
- The prime supports several cross-domain reasoning moves. Counterfactual entailment: a disposition warrants conditional claims of the form "if trigger T occurred, manifestation M would occur" — a standing inference license, not merely a generalization from observed cases. Decoupling existence from observation: the capacity is ascribed independently of any observation of manifestation, which is structurally what licenses inference about unobserved physical properties, untested code paths, and unprosecuted breaches. Capacity composition: dispositions combine, filter, and inhibit, so a series of safety interlocks composes capacities such that joint manifestation requires all triggers, and redundant systems compose so that joint failure requires a conjunction.
This sourceStandard reference on the composition of failure dispositions via fault trees and series/parallel reliability logic — series interlocks requiring all triggers (AND-gates) and redundant systems requiring a conjunction of failures.
- The prime supports several cross-domain reasoning moves. Counterfactual entailment: a disposition warrants conditional claims of the form "if trigger T occurred, manifestation M would occur" — a standing inference license, not merely a generalization from observed cases. Decoupling existence from observation: the capacity is ascribed independently of any observation of manifestation, which is structurally what licenses inference about unobserved physical properties, untested code paths, and unprosecuted breaches. Capacity composition: dispositions combine, filter, and inhibit, so a series of safety interlocks composes capacities such that joint manifestation requires all triggers, and redundant systems compose so that joint failure requires a conjunction.
Mechanisms¶
- Fault Tree with Repeated-Opportunity Branch
- The discipline is to hunt common-cause explicitly
This sourceFault-tree evaluation explicitly checks common causes, grounds basic-event probabilities in stated data and judgments, and treats results as conditional on assumptions rather than proof of safety.
- The discipline is to hunt common-cause explicitly
Verification¶
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