Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament¶
Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Baron, J., Ramos, J., Gurcay, B., Fincher, K., Scott, S. E., et al. (2014). Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament. Psychological Science, 25(5), 1106-1115.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Primes¶
- Foreseeing (Prediction)
- Good Judgment Project (Tetlock and Mellers, 2011–2015). The IARPA-sponsored tournament identified elite forecasters who outperformed average by approximately 30% and studied the properties that correlate with accuracy
This sourceReports the IARPA Good Judgment Project tournament results, including that the project's forecasters (especially trained, teamed 'superforecasters') were over 30% more accurate than the crowd and beat intelligence analysts with access to classified information, with accuracy assessed by Brier score; supports both the '~30% better than average' and the '~15% better than intelligence analysts / Brier-scored' claims.
Supported in partVerified against the work's full text
Reports that top-2% superforecaster teams beat all other groups by a wide margin and that training, teaming and tracking raised accuracy; gives no 30% figure.
“These superforecasters outperformed all other groups by a wide margin.”
- Good Judgment Project (Tetlock and Mellers, 2011–2015). The IARPA-sponsored tournament identified elite forecasters who outperformed average by approximately 30% and studied the properties that correlate with accuracy
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