Climate Change 2021¶
Change, I. P. o. C. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (AR6 Working Group I). Cambridge University Press.
Cited by¶
9 citations across 9 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Clearance Rate
- In atmospheric science, the methane-versus-CO2 asymmetry in atmospheric lifetime is structurally central to climate policy.
This sourceDocuments the contrasting atmospheric lifetimes of methane (~12 yr) and CO2 and their differing implications for climate policy.
- In atmospheric science, the methane-versus-CO2 asymmetry in atmospheric lifetime is structurally central to climate policy.
- Counterfactual Subtraction
- Climate attribution: observed climate compared to a counterfactual model simulation without anthropogenic forcing, with the difference attributed to human influence.
This sourceAttributes observed warming to anthropogenic forcing by differencing observed climate against counterfactual no-/natural-forcing model simulations (see Ch. 3, Human Influence on the Climate System).
- Climate attribution: observed climate compared to a counterfactual model simulation without anthropogenic forcing, with the difference attributed to human influence.
- Deep Time
This sourceIntegrates paleoclimate proxies across multi-millennial baselines and formalizes 'long-term commitments' (anthropogenic warming/CO2 essentially irreversible on human timescales).
- Elasticity
- In environmental science, climate sensitivity — the temperature response to a doubling of CO₂ — is structurally an elasticity.
This sourceDefines equilibrium climate sensitivity — the temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ — structurally a stimulus–response elasticity.
- In environmental science, climate sensitivity — the temperature response to a doubling of CO₂ — is structurally an elasticity.
- Rock Cycle
- The named transformations connect pairs of these — photosynthesis moves carbon from atmosphere to biomass, respiration and decay return it, burial moves it to sediment, combustion and volcanism return it to the atmosphere
This sourceDocuments carbon-cycle transformations (photosynthesis, respiration, combustion, burial) and how fossil-fuel emissions redistribute carbon across reservoirs, including ocean acidification.
- The named transformations connect pairs of these — photosynthesis moves carbon from atmosphere to biomass, respiration and decay return it, burial moves it to sediment, combustion and volcanism return it to the atmosphere
- Scenario Planning
- It also identified "scenario-dependent" bets: large-scale battery storage procurement made sense in high-RPS/accelerated-cost scenarios but was uneconomical in low-RPS/baseline-cost scenarios, a staged-commitment logic consistent with the indicator-based scenario monitoring used in IPCC AR6 Working Group I (2021).
This sourceSynthesizes paleoclimate evidence (ice cores, sediment proxies, geochemistry) across multi-millennial baselines and formalizes "long-term commitments": even with immediate emissions cessation, anthropogenic CO2 remains elevated for many millennia, anchoring climate policy in deep-time consequences.
- It also identified "scenario-dependent" bets: large-scale battery storage procurement made sense in high-RPS/accelerated-cost scenarios but was uneconomical in low-RPS/baseline-cost scenarios, a staged-commitment logic consistent with the indicator-based scenario monitoring used in IPCC AR6 Working Group I (2021).
- Teleconnection
- The attribution problem here is precisely what the IPCC AR6 Working Group I (2021) treats systematically when separating teleconnected drivers from local forcing in regional climate change.
This sourceSynthesizes paleoclimate evidence (ice cores, sediment proxies, geochemistry) across multi-millennial baselines and formalizes "long-term commitments": even with immediate emissions cessation, anthropogenic CO2 remains elevated for many millennia, anchoring climate policy in deep-time consequences.
- The attribution problem here is precisely what the IPCC AR6 Working Group I (2021) treats systematically when separating teleconnected drivers from local forcing in regional climate change.
- Time
- Unowned Known Risk
- In climate policy, the high-probability harms of cumulative emissions are common knowledge, prevention costs are diffuse across nations, sectors, and generations, political horizons are short, precursor events (heatwaves, fires, floods) are absorbed as bad-luck variance, and ex-post narratives frame disasters as surprises.
This sourceEstablishes the high-probability harms of cumulative emissions as scientific common knowledge, the prototypical diffuse-ownership, horizon-mismatched risk.
- In climate policy, the high-probability harms of cumulative emissions are common knowledge, prevention costs are diffuse across nations, sectors, and generations, political horizons are short, precursor events (heatwaves, fires, floods) are absorbed as bad-luck variance, and ex-post narratives frame disasters as surprises.
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