Competence in Experts¶
Shanteau, J. (1992). Competence in Experts: The Role of Task Characteristics. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53(2), 252-266.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Primes¶
- Extrapolation Beyond Sampled Regime
- Military doctrine and policy transfer: tactics calibrated against one theatre, or interventions with strong evidence in one jurisdiction, applied confidently elsewhere; the internal confidence (training, prior validation, cited evidence base) does not flag the regime shift. Expert intuition: deeply experienced experts show high confidence both on near-base and on out-of-base problems while accuracy drops sharply, because the "I am confident" signal tracks the experiential base, not the distance of the current problem from it.
This sourceTheory of expert competence holding that expert performance depends on task characteristics, so experts confident within their experiential base can perform poorly on tasks unlike it — confidence as a within-regime signal misread as applicability.
- Military doctrine and policy transfer: tactics calibrated against one theatre, or interventions with strong evidence in one jurisdiction, applied confidently elsewhere; the internal confidence (training, prior validation, cited evidence base) does not flag the regime shift. Expert intuition: deeply experienced experts show high confidence both on near-base and on out-of-base problems while accuracy drops sharply, because the "I am confident" signal tracks the experiential base, not the distance of the current problem from it.
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