The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool¶
Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15(4), 353-375.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
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Primes¶
- Delphi Method
- In academic research, Delphi is a recognized methodology with substantial methodological literature, notably Linstone and Turoff's 1975 compendium The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications and the Rowe and Wright 1999 systematic review of Delphi accuracy.
This sourceSystematic review of Delphi accuracy and methodological issues across multiple applications.
- In academic research, Delphi is a recognized methodology with substantial methodological literature, notably Linstone and Turoff's 1975 compendium The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications and the Rowe and Wright 1999 systematic review of Delphi accuracy.
Mechanisms¶
- Delphi Process
- Its signature risk is that iteration can manufacture convergence: a panel pulled toward the running median across rounds may produce a tight distribution that reflects regression to the group's center rather than genuine agreement, and a coordinator who curates the feedback can steer the result.
This sourceReviews evidence that Delphi iteration and statistical feedback typically reduce variance and can pull panelists toward the group average without genuine agreement.
- Its signature risk is that iteration can manufacture convergence: a panel pulled toward the running median across rounds may produce a tight distribution that reflects regression to the group's center rather than genuine agreement, and a coordinator who curates the feedback can steer the result.
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