The Year 2000¶
Kahn, H., & Wiener, A. J. (1967). The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years.
Cited by¶
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Primes¶
- Scenario Planning
- The scenarios did not predict which future would occur, but they clarified that the range of plausible futures included both protracted-advantage scenarios and surprise-vulnerability scenarios, and that military readiness required hedging across this range — methodological commitments that echo Kahn and Wiener's (1967) long-horizon scenario framework in The Year 2000.
This sourceMacmillan. Long-horizon scenario framework projecting multiple alternative futures for the year 2000; pioneering exemplar of multi-decade scenario construction with explicit drivers and branching narratives.
- The scenarios did not predict which future would occur, but they clarified that the range of plausible futures included both protracted-advantage scenarios and surprise-vulnerability scenarios, and that military readiness required hedging across this range — methodological commitments that echo Kahn and Wiener's (1967) long-horizon scenario framework in The Year 2000.
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