The Theory of Statistical Decision¶
Savage, L. J. (1951). The Theory of Statistical Decision. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 46(253), 55-67.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Regret
- Regret is the value gap an agent registers between the outcome it actually obtained and the better outcome that a forgone alternative would have produced — a comparison made after the fact against a counterfactual reference rather than against prior expectations, a structure Savage (1951) first made formal in proposing the minimax-regret criterion.
This sourceIntroduces the minimax-regret criterion, the formal origin of regret as a prior-free decision objective scored against the best act in hindsight.
- Regret is the value gap an agent registers between the outcome it actually obtained and the better outcome that a forgone alternative would have produced — a comparison made after the fact against a counterfactual reference rather than against prior expectations, a structure Savage (1951) first made formal in proposing the minimax-regret criterion.
Mechanisms¶
- Regret Analysis
- … it targets the emotion and politics of decisions directly: it minimizes the "we should have chosen differently" exposure that dominates post-mortems, and it often rescues a sensible middle option that neither the raw-optimum nor the pure worst-case view would surface — the logic of Savage's minimax-regret criterion.
This sourceFormulates minimax regret as choosing the action whose maximum opportunity loss across states is smallest.
- … it targets the emotion and politics of decisions directly: it minimizes the "we should have chosen differently" exposure that dominates post-mortems, and it often rescues a sensible middle option that neither the raw-optimum nor the pure worst-case view would surface — the logic of Savage's minimax-regret criterion.
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