The Combination of Forecasts¶
Bates, J. M., & Granger, C. W. J. (1969). The Combination of Forecasts. Journal of the Operational Research Society (Operational Research Quarterly), 20(4), 451-468.
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1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Primes¶
- Bayesian Cue Integration
- The pattern also appears in medical diagnosis combining tests by likelihood ratios, in multi-witness testimony weighted by reliability, in late-fusion multi-modal AI architectures, and in finance combining analyst forecasts and price-derived signals by inverse-variance weights.
This sourceFounds forecast combination: composite forecasts using weights derived from each forecast's past error variance achieve lower error than any single forecast — the precision-weighted combination of forecasts.
- The pattern also appears in medical diagnosis combining tests by likelihood ratios, in multi-witness testimony weighted by reliability, in late-fusion multi-modal AI architectures, and in finance combining analyst forecasts and price-derived signals by inverse-variance weights.
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