Rising variance¶
Carpenter, S. R., & Brock, W. A. (2006). Rising variance: A leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecology Letters, 9(3), 311-318.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Criticality
- Bloom event-size distributions shift from Gaussian toward power-law-tailed, an ecological pattern Carpenter and Brock (2006) document as variance-based early warning of regime shifts.
This sourceLake-eutrophication model demonstrating that rising standard deviation/variance in time-series observations precedes regime shifts; foundational empirical case for variance-based early-warning signals the marker cites.
Supported in partVerified against the work's full text
Supports rising variance as a leading indicator of lake regime shifts in a eutrophication model; it says nothing on bloom event sizes or power-law tails.
“the SD (or variance) of total phosphorus density in the water column within the period of summer stratification should increase as a lake approaches a transition from oligotrophic to eutrophic attractors.”
- Bloom event-size distributions shift from Gaussian toward power-law-tailed, an ecological pattern Carpenter and Brock (2006) document as variance-based early warning of regime shifts.
- Tipping Points (or Phase Transitions)
- - Structural tension: Critical slowing-down (slower recovery from perturbations), variance increase, and autocorrelation rise are theoretically predicted to emerge near bifurcation points
This sourceLake-eutrophication model demonstrating that rising variance in time-series observations precedes regime shifts; foundational empirical case for variance-based early-warning signals of critical transitions in ecosystems.
- - Structural tension: Critical slowing-down (slower recovery from perturbations), variance increase, and autocorrelation rise are theoretically predicted to emerge near bifurcation points
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Read against the text for 1 of 2 citations: 1 supported in part. Each verdict is shown under its citation below, with what in the work backs the sentence.
Support is checked per citation rather than per work — the same source can be cited soundly in one article and wrongly in another. Per-citation recording began recently, so a citation with no recorded check is a gap in the record rather than evidence it went unchecked.
See how references were verified.
Registry ID ref:cc9a9ab59df6 · see in the full table