Rising variance¶
Carpenter, S. R., & Brock, W. A. (2006). Rising variance: A leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecology Letters, 9(3), 311-318.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Criticality
- Bloom event-size distributions shift from Gaussian toward power-law-tailed, an ecological pattern Carpenter and Brock (2006) document as variance-based early warning of regime shifts.
This sourceLake-eutrophication model demonstrating that rising standard deviation/variance in time-series observations precedes regime shifts; foundational empirical case for variance-based early-warning signals the marker cites.
- Bloom event-size distributions shift from Gaussian toward power-law-tailed, an ecological pattern Carpenter and Brock (2006) document as variance-based early warning of regime shifts.
- Tipping Points (or Phase Transitions)
- - Structural tension: Critical slowing-down (slower recovery from perturbations), variance increase, and autocorrelation rise are theoretically predicted to emerge near bifurcation points
This sourceLake-eutrophication model demonstrating that rising variance in time-series observations precedes regime shifts; foundational empirical case for variance-based early-warning signals of critical transitions in ecosystems.
- - Structural tension: Critical slowing-down (slower recovery from perturbations), variance increase, and autocorrelation rise are theoretically predicted to emerge near bifurcation points
Verification¶
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