Science and Statistics.

Box, G. E. P. (1976). Science and Statistics. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 71(356), 791-799.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

1976

DOI

10.1080/01621459.1976.10480949

Link

https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1976.10480949

Cited from

philosophy, research_methods

Cited by

6 citations across 6 artifacts.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Foreseeing (Prediction)
  • Box's 1976 maxim

    This sourceSource of the aphorism 'all models are wrong, but some are useful' (stated twice); supports the pragmatic stance that predictions are approximations whose usefulness is judged against outcomes rather than logical perfection.

• Inquiry-Change Learning Loop
  • An analyst who would otherwise need a full specification of a ward, a market, or a plant before acting needs instead a model precise enough to make one falsifiable commitment.

    This sourcePresents the iterative model-data loop in which a model known to be wrong earns its keep by being specific enough to produce a checkable discrepancy.

Domain-specific

• Statistical Model
  • Box's account of scientific statistics treats modeling as an iterative confrontation between theory and practice, with parsimonious models revised in response to inadequacy rather than regarded as literal reality.

Mechanisms

• Growth-and-Crash Stock-Flow Model
  • All models are wrong;
• Model-Class Revision
  • A richer class can fit the past so well it stops constraining the future — the trap behind "all models are wrong, but some are useful"

    This sourceArgues that because all models are wrong, excessive elaboration cannot make one correct and economical models should be preferred.

• Simplification Review
  • Held to George Box's maxim that all models are wrong but some are useful, its whole job is to decide which wrongness is tolerable and which must be fixed.

    This sourceStates that all models are wrong but some are useful.

Verification

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