A Treatise on Probability

Keynes, J. M. (1921). A Treatise on Probability.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

1921

Link

https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/32625

Cited from

economics_finance, philosophy

Cited by

2 citations across 2 artifacts.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Black Swan (High-Impact, Low-Probability Events)
  • The term "black swan" in its modern sense was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Fooled by Randomness (2001) and especially The Black Swan (2007), drawing on the philosophical usage of "black swan" as an example of the problem of induction (Hume via Popper and others; Keynes 1921

    This sourceThe first systematic theory of logical/epistemic probability and of induction's foundations, distinguishing measurable from non-measurable uncertainty. Cited inline in Broad Use ('Keynes 1921 on probability foundations')

• Uncertainty
  • a future event, a system parameter, a causal mechanism, a state of the world — what is being uncertain about; (2) the evidence or information state

    This sourceMacmillan. Keynes logical interpretation of probability foundational.

Verification

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