Vox Populi.¶
GALTON, F. (1907). Vox Populi. Nature, 75(1949), 450-451.
Cited by¶
3 citations across 3 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Population Coding
- Wisdom of the Crowds
- The earliest empirical demonstration is Galton's (1907) observation that the median of 787 independent guesses at the dressed weight of an ox at a country fair fell within 1% of the true value, beating nearly every individual estimate and every cattle expert present.
This sourceReports the ox-weight competition at the West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition: the median of 787 independent guesses fell within 1% of the true dressed weight, the founding empirical demonstration of crowd accuracy through independent estimates.
- The earliest empirical demonstration is Galton's (1907) observation that the median of 787 independent guesses at the dressed weight of an ox at a country fair fell within 1% of the true value, beating nearly every individual estimate and every cattle expert present.
Mechanisms¶
- Independent Estimation
- Under genuine independence, aggregation is a remarkably cheap accuracy gain.
This sourceReports an aggregate crowd estimate very close to the observed value.
- Under genuine independence, aggregation is a remarkably cheap accuracy gain.
Verification¶
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Registry ID ref:cfeebf41e02c · see in the full table