Interpretation by Physicians of Clinical Laboratory Results¶
Casscells, W., Schoenberger, A., & Graboys, T. B. (1978). Interpretation by Physicians of Clinical Laboratory Results. New England Journal of Medicine, 299(18), 999-1001.
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Primes¶
- Conditional Probability
- The medical-screening case is the paradigm that makes the stakes concrete: a 99%-accurate test for a disease with prevalence one in a thousand yields a positive-test posterior of roughly nine percent rather than the naively expected ninety-nine
This sourceDemonstrates base-rate neglect: a 99%-specific test for a disease of prevalence 1/1000 yields a positive-test posterior near 9%, not 99% — the canonical screening calculation.
- The medical-screening case is the paradigm that makes the stakes concrete: a 99%-accurate test for a disease with prevalence one in a thousand yields a positive-test posterior of roughly nine percent rather than the naively expected ninety-nine
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