Simpson's Paradox in Real Life.¶
Wagner, C. H. (1982). Simpson's Paradox in Real Life. The American Statistician, 36(1), 46-48.
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1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Primes¶
- Simpson's Paradox
- Workforce and pay-equity analysis: men out-earn women in every department yet women out-earn men in the pool (or the reverse), because departments differ in pay scale and gender composition. Machine-learning fairness audits: a classifier is calibrated within every demographic subgroup but miscalibrated in the aggregate, or the reverse, so group-conditional and pooled metrics tell different stories. Business KPIs and epidemiology: a per-customer conversion rate rises every quarter while the annual aggregate falls due to mix shift; case-fatality rates run higher in every age stratum of country A than country B yet lower in aggregate because the age distributions differ.
This sourceDocuments real-world occurrences of the paradox across domains, including the role of differing subgroup composition and rates.
- Workforce and pay-equity analysis: men out-earn women in every department yet women out-earn men in the pool (or the reverse), because departments differ in pay scale and gender composition. Machine-learning fairness audits: a classifier is calibrated within every demographic subgroup but miscalibrated in the aggregate, or the reverse, so group-conditional and pooled metrics tell different stories. Business KPIs and epidemiology: a per-customer conversion rate rises every quarter while the annual aggregate falls due to mix shift; case-fatality rates run higher in every age stratum of country A than country B yet lower in aggregate because the age distributions differ.
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