Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)¶

Field, E. H. (2015). Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3).

Type: Unclassified
Intellectual base: Unclassified
Year: 2015
DOI: 10.1785/0120140093
Link: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140093

Cited by¶

1 citation across 1 artifact.

Domain-specific¶

Seismic Gap
- Despite this empirical fragility, gap reasoning remains an organizing framework in national probabilistic seismic-hazard assessments — including Japan's government hazard maps and the UCERF models for California — because even contested renewal-process logic provides a structure for incorporating elapsed time into hazard estimates that purely time-independent Poisson models cannot supply

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