Asymptotic Formulae for Likelihood-Based Tests of New Physics¶
Cowan, G., Cranmer, K., Gross, E., & Vitells, O. (2011). Asymptotic Formulae for Likelihood-Based Tests of New Physics. European Physical Journal C, 71.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Primes¶
- False Positive Paradox
- In ecology and conservation, rare-species detectors (eDNA, acoustic monitoring, camera traps) generate spurious occurrence records; in quality control, rare defects mean a good test reject-flags more good parts than bad; in astronomy and signal detection, searches for rare phenomena set extreme thresholds (five-sigma, low false-alarm rates) because the candidate pool is enormous and the true positives few.
This sourceFormalizes the significance/discovery-threshold statistics behind the particle-physics five-sigma convention (p approximately 3e-7) used because the candidate pool is enormous and true positives rare, supporting the extreme-threshold rare-event-search claim.
Supported in partVerified against the work's full text
Cowan et al. confirm the five-sigma (p about 2.9e-7) discovery convention in particle physics, but not the ecology and quality-control examples or the rationale of an enormous candidate pool.
“the particle phy sics community has tended to regard rejection of the background hypothesis with a sign ificance of at least Z = 5 as an appropriate level to constitute a discovery. This corres ponds to p = 2 .87 × 10−7.”
- In ecology and conservation, rare-species detectors (eDNA, acoustic monitoring, camera traps) generate spurious occurrence records; in quality control, rare defects mean a good test reject-flags more good parts than bad; in astronomy and signal detection, searches for rare phenomena set extreme thresholds (five-sigma, low false-alarm rates) because the candidate pool is enormous and the true positives few.
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