A Study of Common-Mode Failures¶
Edwards, G. T., & Watson, I. A. (1979). A Study of Common-Mode Failures. UKAEA Systems Reliability Service, Report SRD R146.
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Primes¶
- Dependency Distribution Concentration
- From these several reusable inferences follow. Concentration is a system property, not a provider property: diversifying without checking common-mode upstream correlations yields apparent diversification with concentrated true dependency. Tail risk dominates expected loss: when losses are convex in provider unavailability, the concentration measure dominates the average reliability measure in determining tail outcomes. The "two of everything" heuristic is wrong by default: naive duplication does not deconcentrate if both copies share upstream common modes, since effective deconcentration requires independence of failure, a property of the joint distribution rather than the count.
This sourceFoundational reliability-engineering treatment of common-cause/common-mode failure, establishing that redundant copies sharing a common mode fail together — effective deconcentration requires independence of failure, not mere duplication.
- From these several reusable inferences follow. Concentration is a system property, not a provider property: diversifying without checking common-mode upstream correlations yields apparent diversification with concentrated true dependency. Tail risk dominates expected loss: when losses are convex in provider unavailability, the concentration measure dominates the average reliability measure in determining tail outcomes. The "two of everything" heuristic is wrong by default: naive duplication does not deconcentrate if both copies share upstream common modes, since effective deconcentration requires independence of failure, a property of the joint distribution rather than the count.
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