Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed.¶
Squire, P. (1988). Why the 1936 Literary Digest Poll Failed. Public Opinion Quarterly, 52(1), 125-133.
Cited by¶
6 citations across 6 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Bias
- The famous 1936 Literary Digest poll illustrates the cost of missing this—an enormous sample (millions of responses) produced a confidently wrong prediction because the sampling frame was biased toward wealthier households, an error no quantity of additional biased responses could have repaired.
This sourceAnalysis showing that the magazine's enormous sample produced a confidently wrong prediction because both the sampling frame (telephone/automobile-registration lists) and a low, non-random response jointly biased the result — an error that no quantity of additional biased responses could have repaired.
- The famous 1936 Literary Digest poll illustrates the cost of missing this—an enormous sample (millions of responses) produced a confidently wrong prediction because the sampling frame was biased toward wealthier households, an error no quantity of additional biased responses could have repaired.
Mechanisms¶
- Representative Consensus Survey
- A large sample that is nonrandom is not more trustworthy for being large — the Literary Digest
This sourceShows that the enormous 1936 Literary Digest poll predicted the wrong winner because a nonrandom, wealth-skewed sample and response bias overwhelmed its size.
- A large sample that is nonrandom is not more trustworthy for being large — the Literary Digest
- Representativeness and Nonresponse Review
- Either way, the raw, flattering index does not ship unqualified.
This sourceSquire found that sample bias and response bias jointly produced the Literary Digest poll's badly misleading raw estimate.
- Either way, the raw, flattering index does not ship unqualified.
- Sample Frame Reconstruction
- The canonical warning is the 1936 Literary Digest poll, which forecast the wrong U.S. presidential winner from an enormous sample drawn through a skewed frame (automobile and telephone registries, its own subscriber lists) that missed much of the electorate.
This sourceDocuments an enormous ballot mailing, a frame drawing on automobile-registration, telephone, and subscriber lists, and substantial undercoverage and class bias.
- The canonical warning is the 1936 Literary Digest poll, which forecast the wrong U.S. presidential winner from an enormous sample drawn through a skewed frame (automobile and telephone registries, its own subscriber lists) that missed much of the electorate.
- Sampling Frame Definition
- Stratified Sampling Review
- The classic misuse is treating raw sample size as if it were representativeness — the enormous 1936 Literary Digest poll drew millions of responses and still called the election wrong
This sourceDocuments that the 1936 Literary Digest poll returned more than 2.3 million ballots yet predicted Landon instead of Roosevelt.
- The classic misuse is treating raw sample size as if it were representativeness — the enormous 1936 Literary Digest poll drew millions of responses and still called the election wrong
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