Out of the Blue¶
Petersen, J. L. (1999). Out of the Blue: How to Cope with Big Future Surprises. Madison Books.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 1 artifact.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Wild Cards
- … planned against — and that, if it occurred, would substantially alter the strategic environment in ways that routine planning assumptions do not accommodate**, in the formulation introduced by Petersen (1997) and developed further by Taleb (2007) in his contrasting treatment of the unnameable-in-prospect black swan.
This sourceFoundational text introducing wild-card methodology; defines wild cards as low-probability, high-impact events nameable in prospect and develops the candidate-generation, mechanism-analysis, and integration apparatus.
- … in corporate futures programs, and in risk-analysis domains where structural surprise has high cost, as Bell (1997) surveys in Foundations of Futures Studies. The method's formal codification is usually traced to John L. Petersen's Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises (1997; second edition 1999)
This sourceArlington Institute founder; canonical monograph on wild-card analysis.
- … planned against — and that, if it occurred, would substantially alter the strategic environment in ways that routine planning assumptions do not accommodate**, in the formulation introduced by Petersen (1997) and developed further by Taleb (2007) in his contrasting treatment of the unnameable-in-prospect black swan.
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