Out of the Blue

Petersen, J. L. (1999). Out of the Blue: How to Cope with Big Future Surprises. Madison Books.

Type

Book

Intellectual base

Review or monograph

Year

1999

Link

https://archive.org/details/outofbluewildcar0000pete not authoritativematched

Cited from

futurism_foresight

Cited by

2 citations across 1 artifact.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Wild Cards
  • … planned against — and that, if it occurred, would substantially alter the strategic environment in ways that routine planning assumptions do not accommodate**, in the formulation introduced by Petersen (1997) and developed further by Taleb (2007) in his contrasting treatment of the unnameable-in-prospect black swan.

    This sourceFoundational text introducing wild-card methodology; defines wild cards as low-probability, high-impact events nameable in prospect and develops the candidate-generation, mechanism-analysis, and integration apparatus.

  • The method's formal codification is usually traced to John L. Petersen's Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises (1997; second edition 1999)

    This sourceArlington Institute founder; canonical monograph on wild-card analysis.

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