Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles

Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F., & Polakowski, M. (2005). Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles. Monthly Weather Review, 133(5), 1155-1174.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

2005

DOI

10.1175/mwr2906.1

Link

https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR2906.1

Cited from

cognitive_science

Cited by

1 citation across 1 artifact.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Bayesian Cue Integration
  • In ensemble weather forecasting it is Bayesian model averaging weighted by historical performance.

    This sourceApplies Bayesian model averaging, weighting ensemble members by performance, to produce calibrated probabilistic forecasts.

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Registry ID ref:f29f9a619163 · see in the full table