A Method of Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors¶
Wald, A. (1943). A Method of Estimating Plane Vulnerability Based on Damage of Survivors. Applied Mathematics Panel, National Defense Research Committee.
Cited by¶
4 citations across 4 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Domain-specific¶
- Monty Hall problem
- During World War II, Abraham Wald and the Statistical Research Group analysed the distribution of bullet holes on aircraft returning from combat
This sourceWald's wartime memoranda, which estimate vulnerability from the hit counts of planes that returned from combat — the survivorship-filtered sample itself; they tabulate how many hits a returning plane took, not where on the airframe the holes fell.
Supported in partVerified against the source
- During World War II, Abraham Wald and the Statistical Research Group analysed the distribution of bullet holes on aircraft returning from combat
Mechanisms¶
- Analytics Behavior Review
- Its failure modes begin with survivorship bias — analyzing only the users who stayed while the ones who abandoned, often the most informative, are missing from the frame — and extend to proxy metrics that measure the measurable instead of the meaningful, and to the perennial confusion of correlation for cause.
This sourceDemonstrates survivorship bias by showing that observations from returned aircraft omit the aircraft lost from the sample.
- Its failure modes begin with survivorship bias — analyzing only the users who stayed while the ones who abandoned, often the most informative, are missing from the frame — and extend to proxy metrics that measure the measurable instead of the meaningful, and to the perennial confusion of correlation for cause.
- Post-Transition Legacy, Loss, and Regime Audit
- … the benchmark — grading realized outcomes against quietly softened promises, or declaring the transition "complete" before slow harms surface — and survivorship in the evidence**, auditing only the parties still in the system while those for whom the regime already broke have dropped out of the records entirely.
This sourceThe cited work establishes and survivorship in the evidence, auditing only the parties still in the system while those for whom the regime already broke have dropped out of the records entirely.
- … the benchmark — grading realized outcomes against quietly softened promises, or declaring the transition "complete" before slow harms surface — and survivorship in the evidence**, auditing only the parties still in the system while those for whom the regime already broke have dropped out of the records entirely.
- Shown-vs-Unshown Audit
- It is the standard guard against survivorship bias, the error of reading a story off the survivors
This sourceInfers aircraft vulnerability from returning-plane damage while accounting for the unknown hit distribution among planes that did not return.
- It is the standard guard against survivorship bias, the error of reading a story off the survivors
Verification¶
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Links previously used in the corpus¶
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