Wild Cards, Weak Signals and Organisational Improvisation.

Mendonça, S., Pina e Cunha, M., Kaivo-oja, J., & Ruff, F. (2004). Wild Cards, Weak Signals and Organisational Improvisation. Futures, 3287(03), 201-218.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

2004

DOI

10.1016/s0016-3287(03)00148-4

Link

https://doi.org/10.1016/s0016-3287(03)00148-4

Cited from

futurism_foresight

Cited by

2 citations across 1 artifact.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Wild Cards
  • 1.

    This sourceSystematizes wild-card methodology into candidate generation, mechanism analysis, impact assessment, probability characterization, and integration components; foundational to subsequent foresight-methodology literature.

  • … surprise has high cost, as Bell (1997) surveys in Foundations of Futures Studies. The method's formal codification is usually traced to John L. Petersen's Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises (1997; second edition 1999), with subsequent methodological development by Mendonça and colleagues

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