Source Depletion Dashboard¶

Monitoring dashboard — instantiates Source–Sink Viability Management

Continuously watches each source's health — how much exportable surplus is left, whether its viability guardrails are being breached, and how it holds up under stress — so stewardship never quietly slides into extraction.

The Source Depletion Dashboard is the standing monitor trained on the supply side of the relation. For every unit classified as a source, it tracks whether what is being drawn off is truly surplus — produced after the source's own renewal, resilience, and local obligations are covered — or whether the system has started eating into the source's capacity to keep being a source. Its distinguishing fixation is the source's own viability, not the sinks it feeds: it exists to catch the slow, invisible failure mode in which a healthy-looking exporter is drained a little past sustainable every period until it collapses and takes its dependents down with it.

Example¶

A diversified company runs a mature, cash-generative logistics division whose profits quietly fund three unprofitable growth bets. On the P&L the division looks fine — still net-positive — so nobody notices that its reinvestment, maintenance capex, and staff-development spend have been trimmed three years running to keep the growth bets fed. The Source Depletion Dashboard is where that surfaces. It tracks the division's exportable surplus — cash left after the reinvestment its own future requires — and finds it has gone negative even while headline profit is positive: the division is now exporting principal, not surplus. A guardrail on maintenance-capex-as-share-of-asset-base has sat amber for two quarters and just went red. A stress panel shows a single large-customer loss would flip the division cash-negative outright. The dashboard's signal is not "shut the growth bets" — it is "the source is being over-milked; protect it before deciding anything about the sinks."

How it works¶

Surplus, not profit. The core metric is exportable surplus — output minus the source's own renewal and obligations — so a unit that is net-positive but under-reinvesting still reads as depleting. That single redefinition is what separates it from an ordinary performance dashboard.
Guardrail status, not just level. Each protective floor (reinvestment rate, reserve, headroom, staff capacity) shows as green/amber/red against a redline, so a breach surfaces as a breach rather than as slow drift buried in a trend.
Stress headroom. A standing "what shock would flip this source negative" panel, so fragility is visible before the shock lands, not after.

It watches sources only; the sink side, and the decision to reduce or exit, live elsewhere.

Tuning parameters¶

Surplus definition — how much renewal, reserve, and obligation is subtracted before calling output "exportable"; set it generously and few units qualify as sources, set it thin and you license extraction.
Guardrail thresholds — where each redline sits and how much amber buffer precedes red; tight guardrails trip early and often, loose ones trip too late to matter.
Refresh latency — real-time versus quarterly; faster catches an acute draw but amplifies noise and can provoke over-reaction to one bad period.
Stress severity — how hard the shock scenarios push; mild scenarios reassure, severe ones can freeze legitimate export.
Aggregation — one source at a time versus a portfolio roll-up; the roll-up spots systemic over-draw but can hide a single source being quietly gutted.

When it helps, and when it misleads¶

Its strength is catching the archetype's most dangerous failure — source depletion masked by aggregate health — early enough to act, and reframing "surplus" so that under-reinvestment counts as a withdrawal rather than a saving. Its honest limits: a dashboard is only as good as its surplus definition, and a source's true renewal cost (morale, institutional knowledge, ecological slack) is exactly the part that resists metering, so a green board can still sit atop a hollowing source. It is easily gamed by quietly redefining "surplus" upward to unlock more export — the model run backwards to license a draw someone already wants. And guardrails invite alert fatigue: too many redlines and operators learn to ignore them. The discipline that keeps it honest is to anchor the surplus line on a sustainable-yield logic — never export more than the source can regenerate^[1] — and to treat a breached guardrail as a stop, not a suggestion.

How it implements the components¶

The Source Depletion Dashboard fills the source-protection components — the machinery that keeps stewardship from becoming extraction — and only those:

source_viability_guardrail — it renders each protective redline as live green/amber/red status against its threshold.
exportable_surplus_budget — it computes and tracks the surplus genuinely available for export after the source's own renewal is funded.
scenario_stress_test — its stress panel probes what shock would tip a currently-healthy source into deficit.

It does NOT profile the dependent side — how much each sink needs and how close it sits to failure — that's the Sink Dependency Dashboard; nor does it assign the roles it monitors, which come from the Source–Sink Patch Map.

Instantiates: Source–Sink Viability Management — supplies the continuous source-health signal the appraisal needs before it draws on any source.
Consumes: Source–Sink Patch Map — it monitors the units the map has classified as sources.
Sibling mechanisms: Sink Dependency Dashboard · Source–Sink Patch Map · Cross-Subsidy Budget · Rescue-Effect Audit · Role Reclassification Review · Metapopulation Model

Notes¶

This dashboard answers whether a source has exportable surplus; it does not decide how that surplus is allocated among sinks — that is the Cross-Subsidy Budget. A source can read perfectly healthy here and still be subsidising the wrong sinks.

References¶

[1] Maximum sustainable yield is the largest amount that can be drawn from a self-renewing stock indefinitely without diminishing it; drawing above it — over-fishing, over-milking, spending a budget's principal — raises short-term export while lowering the stock's future capacity. The dashboard's surplus line is a management analogue of that limit. ↩