Superforecasting¶
Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown.
Cited by¶
10 citations across 9 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Confidence Annotation
- In forecasting it is numerical probabilities attached to predictions, with calibration tracking whether the annotations match outcomes over time.
This sourceAttaching numerical probabilities to forecasts and tracking calibration against outcomes over time.
- In forecasting it is numerical probabilities attached to predictions, with calibration tracking whether the annotations match outcomes over time.
- Epistemic Humility
- The disposition spans philosophy of science (Popper's 1959 fallibilism and refutability), forecasting research (Tetlock and Gardner's 2015 finding that superforecasters update incrementally and avoid extreme confidence), organizational learning (Edmondson's 1999 psychological safety to surface dissent), medical epistemology (diagnostic uncertainty and "I don't know"), AI safety (model uncertainty and refusal under distributional mismatch), and public communication of science.
This sourceReports the Good Judgment Project: superforecasters update incrementally, avoid extreme confidence, and use structured probabilistic reasoning. SUPPORTS marker 212 (superforecasters update incrementally and avoid extreme confidence).
- A physician trained to communicate diagnostic uncertainty transfers that discipline to a policymaker reasoning about public health; a forecaster trained to avoid extreme confidence applies that same discipline to leadership decision-making, a transferable forecasting discipline Tetlock and Gardner (2015) document across domains in superforecaster practice.
This sourceCrown. Documents that probabilistic thinking, incremental updating, and explicit calibration tracking transfer across geopolitical, economic, and operational forecasting domains. SUPPORTS marker 222 (cross-domain transfer of the forecasting/epistemic-humility discipline). [Duplicate source of tetlock-gardner-2015 under a distinct key; both retained as keyed in the body.]
Supported in partVerified against the publisher's abstract
The blurb shows superforecasting methods drawn from varied settings and decision makers, which loosely supports cross-domain relevance but not the physician or leadership transfer examples.
“interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin”
- The disposition spans philosophy of science (Popper's 1959 fallibilism and refutability), forecasting research (Tetlock and Gardner's 2015 finding that superforecasters update incrementally and avoid extreme confidence), organizational learning (Edmondson's 1999 psychological safety to surface dissent), medical epistemology (diagnostic uncertainty and "I don't know"), AI safety (model uncertainty and refusal under distributional mismatch), and public communication of science.
- Foreseeing (Prediction)
- The clarifying force is to convert intuitive guesses into structured, comparable, and learnable claims rather than letting them evaporate into post-hoc rationalization
This sourceReports Good Judgment Project findings that the most accurate forecasters update incrementally, assign granular probabilities, avoid extreme confidence, and explicitly track calibration — operationalizing epistemic humility in forecasting practice; documents that forecast accuracy decays with horizon (approaching chance ~3-5 years out).
- The clarifying force is to convert intuitive guesses into structured, comparable, and learnable claims rather than letting them evaporate into post-hoc rationalization
- Foresight
- The plurality discipline is what distinguishes it from a forecast-style "what's most likely to go wrong" question, which collapses the future-set to a single estimate and loses the robustness-seeking value of the operation, an institutional payoff Tetlock and Gardner (2015) document for structured prospective-imagination practices.
This sourceCrown. Draws on the Good Judgment Project to show disciplined prospective practices — pre-mortems, scenario thinking, structured imagination of plural futures — outperform unaided expert intuition. SUPPORTS the structured-prospective-imagination payoff claim (163).
- The plurality discipline is what distinguishes it from a forecast-style "what's most likely to go wrong" question, which collapses the future-set to a single estimate and loses the robustness-seeking value of the operation, an institutional payoff Tetlock and Gardner (2015) document for structured prospective-imagination practices.
- Wisdom of the Crowds
- Forecasting and prediction markets: Pooled forecasts and market prices routinely outperform individual experts, a finding Tetlock and Gardner (2015) document in their superforecasting work, where the aggregation of many diverse, frequently-updated individual estimates beat the predictions of intelligence analysts with classified access.
This sourceDraws on the Good Judgment Project to show that disciplined forecasting practices — pre-mortems, scenario thinking, structured imagination of plural futures — outperform unaided expert intuition; supplies an institutional argument for foresight-style anticipation under uncertainty.
Supported in partVerified against the work's full text
The fetched page says superforecasters beat prediction markets and the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with classified access, but says nothing of pooled estimates or market prices beating experts.
“They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters.””
- Forecasting and prediction markets: Pooled forecasts and market prices routinely outperform individual experts, a finding Tetlock and Gardner (2015) document in their superforecasting work, where the aggregation of many diverse, frequently-updated individual estimates beat the predictions of intelligence analysts with classified access.
Mechanisms¶
- Belief-Update Protocol
- The guarding discipline is the practice of good Bayesian updating
This sourceDescribes effective forecasters as updating probability judgments frequently and incrementally as evidence changes.
- The guarding discipline is the practice of good Bayesian updating
- Confidence-Weighted Vote
- Work on forecasting tournaments has repeatedly found that this calibration discipline, not raw confidence, is what separates skilled panels from noisy ones.
This sourceShows that calibrated probabilistic forecasts and measured accuracy, rather than raw self-confidence, distinguish stronger tournament forecasters.
- Work on forecasting tournaments has repeatedly found that this calibration discipline, not raw confidence, is what separates skilled panels from noisy ones.
- Post-Outcome Recalibration Review
- The discipline mirrors large forecasting tournaments, where scoring resolved predictions
This sourceDescribes forecasting tournaments that score resolved predictions and use the resulting feedback to support learning and improvement.
- The discipline mirrors large forecasting tournaments, where scoring resolved predictions
- Sequential Forecast Update
- Its strength is that it produces a coherent, comparable time series and — echoing the superforecasting
This sourceReports that highly successful forecasters update probability estimates frequently and in small increments.
- Its strength is that it produces a coherent, comparable time series and — echoing the superforecasting
Verification¶
Does it exist? Not checked yet. This entry carries no identifier to resolve. It was extracted from the citation as written in the article, normalized, and deduplicated against the rest of the registry.
Does it back the claim? Read against the text for 2 of 10 citations: 2 supported in part. Each verdict is shown under its citation below, with what in the work backs the sentence.
Support is checked per citation rather than per work — the same source can be cited soundly in one article and wrongly in another. Per-citation recording began recently, so a citation with no recorded check is a gap in the record rather than evidence it went unchecked.
See how references were verified.
Links previously used in the corpus¶
Before the registry existed this work was also linked 2 other ways.
- https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/227815/superforecasting-by-philip-e-tetlock-and-dan-gardner/9780804136709/ ×3
- https://search.worldcat.org/title/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction/oclc/898419320 ×1
Registry ID ref:3a0dc8e52ac5 · see in the full table