Scenario Planning¶
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
Cited by¶
9 citations across 9 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Scenario Planning
- Scenario planning targets exactly this level of analysis — enough distinction to stress-test strategies, not so much detail as to paralyze decision-making, the design principle Schoemaker (1995) crystallized in his treatment of the 2×2 matrix as a strategic-thinking tool.
This sourcePresents the 2×2 critical-uncertainties matrix as the design template for scenario construction: small enough to be navigable, distinct enough to stress-test strategy, structured enough to discipline imagination.
- Scenario planning targets exactly this level of analysis — enough distinction to stress-test strategies, not so much detail as to paralyze decision-making, the design principle Schoemaker (1995) crystallized in his treatment of the 2×2 matrix as a strategic-thinking tool.
Mechanisms¶
- Crossover Scenario Projection
- The guarding discipline is scenario planning as practiced for strategic foresight
This sourceTreats scenarios as strategic planning aids rather than prophecies about a single future.
- The guarding discipline is scenario planning as practiced for strategic foresight
- Hold-vs-Retreat Scenario Stress Test
- It is a domain instance of scenario planning, the discipline of preparing decisions against several constructed futures rather than a single prediction
This sourcePresents scenario planning as constructing several plausible futures so decisions are prepared across a range rather than a single forecast.
- It is a domain instance of scenario planning, the discipline of preparing decisions against several constructed futures rather than a single prediction
- Reciprocal Adaptation Scenario Planning
- The discipline is to test that the scenarios actually span the mode space, keep them explicitly plural and un-ranked, and revisit them as the real coupling reveals which branch it is taking.
This sourceRecommends multiple scenarios covering a wide range, iterative refinement, and early indicators that reveal which future is emerging.
- The discipline is to test that the scenarios actually span the mode space, keep them explicitly plural and un-ranked, and revisit them as the real coupling reveals which branch it is taking.
- Scenario Condition Card
- It is a working instance of scenario planning, the discipline of reasoning across a few structured, contrasting futures rather than one point forecast.
This sourcePresents scenario planning as constructing a series of contrasting possible futures instead of relying on a single forecast.
- It is a working instance of scenario planning, the discipline of reasoning across a few structured, contrasting futures rather than one point forecast.
- Scenario Dependency Diagram
- Its strength is catching the incoherent and the under-specified before they mislead a strategy: a scenario built on assumptions that cannot co-exist is worse than no scenario, and this diagram is the consistency check
This sourceRequires scenario planners to test scenarios for internal consistency so incompatible assumptions are not combined.
- Its strength is catching the incoherent and the under-specified before they mislead a strategy: a scenario built on assumptions that cannot co-exist is worse than no scenario, and this diagram is the consistency check
- Scenario Teleconnection Brief
- Its strength is making a remote coupling usable by leadership: in the tradition of scenario planning
This sourceUses multiple plausible scenarios to challenge assumptions and test strategy across divergent futures rather than predict a single outcome.
- Its strength is making a remote coupling usable by leadership: in the tradition of scenario planning
- Scenario Variation
- Its strength is that it respects co-movement and communicates: bundled uncertainty (a recession that hits demand, credit, and costs at once) is represented honestly, and stakeholders reason about a handful of vivid worlds more easily than about a variance table.
This sourceUses scenarios to vary several uncertain factors together as internally consistent worlds.
- Its strength is that it respects co-movement and communicates: bundled uncertainty (a recession that hits demand, credit, and costs at once) is represented honestly, and stakeholders reason about a handful of vivid worlds more easily than about a variance table.
- Uncertainty-Axis Planning Canvas
- By forcing every candidate uncertainty through an explicit impact-and-uncertainty screen, it makes the axes earned rather than assumed, and it keeps the downstream set small by admitting only the genuinely decision-relevant unknowns
This sourceAdvises selecting uncertainties whose uncertain outcomes would significantly affect the focal issue.
- By forcing every candidate uncertainty through an explicit impact-and-uncertainty screen, it makes the axes earned rather than assumed, and it keeps the downstream set small by admitting only the genuinely decision-relevant unknowns
Verification¶
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