Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics¶
Tetlock, P. E., & Belkin, A. (1996). Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives. Princeton University Press.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Critical Juncture
- A random event (a meteor strike, a random mutation) may have large consequences, but a critical juncture involves meaningful choice—agency, deliberation, or selection pressure—at the moment of branching, a methodological commitment Tetlock and Belkin (1996) build into their framework for disciplined counterfactual reasoning in world politics.
This sourceCriteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactuals; grounds critical-juncture analysis in meaningful agency rather than pure randomness; supports the not-mere-randomness claim.
- A random event (a meteor strike, a random mutation) may have large consequences, but a critical juncture involves meaningful choice—agency, deliberation, or selection pressure—at the moment of branching, a methodological commitment Tetlock and Belkin (1996) build into their framework for disciplined counterfactual reasoning in world politics.
Mechanisms¶
- Counterfactual Breakpoint Analysis
- Then at each node it runs the counterfactual as a minimal, plausible rewrite — change one decision to an alternative that genuinely existed then, hold everything prior fixed, and trace forward.
This sourceSets out minimal-rewrite, historical-consistency, and projectability tests for disciplined counterfactual analysis.
- Then at each node it runs the counterfactual as a minimal, plausible rewrite — change one decision to an alternative that genuinely existed then, hold everything prior fixed, and trace forward.
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