Inference & Evidence

Primes about forming and testing beliefs from evidence under uncertainty: deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning; Bayesian updating, hypothesis testing, and statistical inference; and the fallacies and biases (confirmation bias, Texas sharpshooter, researcher degrees of freedom) that corrupt the process.

26 primes in this family — primes that sit near one another in abstraction space (k-means over structural-signature embeddings). Each is shown with its structural–framed character and how distinctive (sparsely-neighbored) it is.

• Abductive Reasoning — — · crowded
• Absence Of Evidence Vs Evidence Of Absence — — · mid
• Bayesian Updating — structural · mid
• Belief Formation — — · crowded
• Confidence Annotation — — · distinctive
• Confirmation Bias — mixed-structural · mid
• Convergent Independent Adoption — — · crowded
• Criteria of Individuation — — · mid
• Cromwell's Rule — — · mid
• Deductive Reasoning — structural · crowded
• Emic And Etic — — · distinctive
• Emotional Reasoning — mixed-framed · distinctive
• Enthymeme — — · crowded
• Epistemic Mode Of A Proposition — — · mid
• Evidence — — · crowded
• Foreseeing (Prediction) — structural · distinctive
• Hypothesis Testing (Null vs. Alternative) — mixed-structural · distinctive
• Inductive Reasoning — mixed-structural · crowded
• Informal Fallacy — — · distinctive
• Negative Case Analysis — — · distinctive
• Researcher Degrees of Freedom — — · crowded
• Statistical Inference — mixed-structural · crowded
• Statistical Significance (p-Value) — structural · distinctive
• Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy — — · crowded
• Uniformitarianism — mixed-structural · distinctive
• Unreliable Narrator — — · crowded