Uncertainty, Risk & Proxy Distortion

Primes about reasoning under uncertainty and rare high-impact events, and the ways measures detach from what they track: black swans and exposure creep; risk pooling and statistical independence; uncertainty itself; and the proxy-target failures of Goodhart's, Campbell's, and regression to the mean.

22 primes in this family — primes that sit near one another in abstraction space (k-means over structural-signature embeddings). Each is shown with its structural–framed character and how distinctive (sparsely-neighbored) it is.

• Black Swan (High-Impact, Low-Probability Events) — mixed-structural · mid
• Brinkmanship — — · mid
• Campbell's Law — — · mid
• Common Knowledge — — · distinctive
• Confounding — structural · mid
• Distributional Assumption — mixed-structural · crowded
• Eventual Realisation of Possibility — — · crowded
• Exposure Creep — — · distinctive
• Eyes On The Street — — · distinctive
• Goodhart's Law — — · distinctive
• Legitimacy-Yielding Inquiry Insulated from Decision — — · distinctive
• Lindy Effect — — · distinctive
• Paradox of Unanimity — — · crowded
• Proxy–Target Fidelity — — · crowded
• Regression to the Mean — structural · mid
• Risk — structural · crowded
• Risk Pooling — mixed-structural · crowded
• Selective Information Severance — — · distinctive
• Statistical Independence — — · mid
• Uncertainty — structural · mid
• Uncertainty-Driven Verification Premium — — · crowded
• Unowned Known Risk — — · mid