Availability¶
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability. Cognitive Psychology, 0285(73), 207-232.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Wild Cards
- The clarity also distinguishes healthy foresight from rumor-mongering or apocalyptic speculation: disciplined wild-card methodology requires plausible mechanisms, systematic review, and prioritization, all of which constrain the watchlist to events that warrant genuine attention — countering the availability heuristic Tversky and Kahneman (1973) document, by which recent or vivid events are mistaken for probable ones.
This sourceFoundational treatment of the availability heuristic: people judge the probability of events by how easily examples come to mind, systematically overweighting recent or vivid events and underweighting unfamiliar ones; the cognitive-bias backdrop against which disciplined wild-card methodology must operate.
- The clarity also distinguishes healthy foresight from rumor-mongering or apocalyptic speculation: disciplined wild-card methodology requires plausible mechanisms, systematic review, and prioritization, all of which constrain the watchlist to events that warrant genuine attention — countering the availability heuristic Tversky and Kahneman (1973) document, by which recent or vivid events are mistaken for probable ones.
Mechanisms¶
- Scenario Sampling Workflow
- Its failure mode is that vivid individual scenarios are psychologically overpowering — a single memorable tail case can hijack a decision out of all proportion to its likelihood, the availability heuristic operating in full force.
This sourceShows that memorable incidents and compelling or vividly portrayed scenarios inflate subjective likelihood and can suppress consideration of alternatives.
- Its failure mode is that vivid individual scenarios are psychologically overpowering — a single memorable tail case can hijack a decision out of all proportion to its likelihood, the availability heuristic operating in full force.
Verification¶
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